ACUS11 KWNS 050341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050340
TXZ000-050545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0688
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Areas affected...parts of wrn TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 050340Z - 050545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated intense cell may persist south/southeast of
Midland perhaps another hour or so, before dissipating.

DISCUSSION...One isolated intense cell, which impacted the Wink TX
vicinity a couple of hours ago with severe hail and a localized
gusts in excess of 65 kt, has been maintained.  It appears that this
has been supported by lift associated with lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection, as it propagates along a thermal gradient around the
700 mb level.   Based on a NAM-based objective analysis, there may
be a narrow corridor of (relatively) better instability along this
track, but strong shear may be the more prominent factor (aided by
low-level easterlies veering to 40-50 kt west-southwesterly flow
around 500) in maintaining this cell.

Even so, the stronger convection has shown some recent contraction
in size and decrease in intensity.  Based on the objective
instability analysis, and latest surface observations, there appears
increasing potential for it to begin a more rapid dissipation by the
time it reaches the Glasscock/Reagan counties vicinity around 05Z,
if not earlier.

..Kerr/Smith.. 05/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON   31750196 31720164 31580150 31480167 31590208 31750196

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN



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