ACUS11 KWNS 042255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042255 
TXZ000-NMZ000-050100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0685
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Areas affected...much of sern NM into swrn TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222...

Valid 042255Z - 050100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development posing
a risk for severe hail, and perhaps a few strong surface gusts, may
continue into the 7-8 PM MDT time frame, before diminishing.  It
appears unlikely that a new severe weather watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew
points near or just above 50F remains confined to a narrow corridor
to the lee of the Davis, Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains, where
2-hourly surface pressure falls in excess of 2 mb have been observed
the past couple of hours.  This has contributed to gusty
southeasterly surface winds beneath flow that veers with height to
30-40 kt southwesterly around 500 mb.  

While the digging mid/upper low has become quasi-stationary across
the Southwest, strongly difluent downstream flow is focused to the
lee of the southern Rockies, aiding scattered ongoing strong
discrete thunderstorm development.  It appears that convection, in
general, may gradually begin to shift away from the higher terrain
with a weak mid-level impulse, toward the Texas South Plains through
01-02z.  As it does, more stable easterly updraft inflow emanating
from a drier and more deeply mixed boundary-layer will probably
contribute to weakening trends, though a few strong surface gusts
may be possible before convection dissipates.

How much longer renewed thunderstorm development persists to the lee
of the higher terrain remains unclear.  However, boundary-layer
instability likely has peaked, and the risk for strong to severe
thunderstorm development probably will wane with the onset of
boundary-layer cooling.

..Kerr.. 05/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   34350420 33800311 33350277 31920251 31310337 31410412
            31790518 32250570 32970607 33810612 34190566 34400484
            34350420 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN



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