ACUS11 KWNS 041835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041834
WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-042100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0683
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeast Kentucky into central and
southern Ohio...extreme southwestern Pennsylvania...much of West
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041834Z - 042100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop into mid afternoon
with the stronger storms. Several bouts of small hail may occur,
with a few instances of marginally severe hail and gusty winds also
possible. A tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is unlikely
given the isolated nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
beneath a nearly vertically stacked cyclone, where colder
temperatures aloft are overspreading a warming/destabilizing
boundary layer. Despite mediocre vertical wind shear, 500 mb
temperatures dropping below -20C indicate the potential for at least
small hail development in the stronger storm cores, with a couple
instances of marginally severe hail possible with the more
persistent updrafts. A few strong wind gusts may also occur.
Furthermore, a tornado cannot be ruled out given the deep-layer
vertical vorticity rich environment over the eastern OH Valley.
Nonetheless, given limited boundary-layer-based buoyancy, the
overall coverage of severe is expected to be too low to warrant a WW
issuance at this time.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   39897977 38627985 37738047 37418123 37288202 37348312
            37678394 38478432 39268415 40248330 40538239 40598226
            41118103 40838035 39897977

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN



=====================================