ACUS11 KWNS 041759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041759
FLZ000-GAZ000-042030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0680
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Areas affected...eastern parts of the Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041759Z - 042030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sparse strong wind gusts may accompany the stronger storms
that develop, and an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. A WW
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are maturing along a remnant frontal
boundary across the northern Florida Peninsula, and are poised to
progress into a destabilizing airmass, where over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE
is already in place. Despite adequate buoyancy, deep-layer shear is
expected to be weaker compared to the southern FL Peninsula, where
the 300 mb jet maximum will be located later this afternoon. As
such, the modest buoyancy and mediocre shear profile should limit
severe wind and hail from becoming widespread, though a couple of
strong wind gusts are still possible, along with an instance of
hail. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance
appears unlikely.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27238151 28048174 29408213 30058222 30398220 30498188
            30208148 29208097 28678064 28388061 27768043 27438033
            27178046 27088097 27098116 27238151

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN



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