ACUS11 KWNS 041722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041722
TXZ000-NMZ000-041915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0678
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Areas affected...southeast NM and far west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 041722Z - 041915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A few to several supercells, a couple of which may be
long-lived, should develop across southeast New Mexico into parts of
far west Texas this afternoon. Golf to tennis ball size hail,
localized severe gusts to 70 mph, and a brief tornado will be
possible. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...Despite modest low-level moisture, the northwest extent
of mid to upper 40s surface dew points should be maintained through
peak boundary-layer mixing. A difluent mid/upper flow regime
downstream of a strong zonal jetlet, centered on the border area
with northwest Mexico, and orographic forcing will aid in sufficient
ascent for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Low-level
south-southeasterlies veering to the west-southwesterlies aloft will
be favorable for supercells, a couple of which may be long-lived.
Initial supercells should remain tied to the higher terrain near the
Sacramento Mountains into the far northern portion of the
Trans-Pecos with effective bulk shear from 30-40 kts. This will
increase above 40 kts towards late afternoon. Robust speed shear in
the upper portion of the buoyancy profile coupled with MLCAPE of
500-1500 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. The
overall spatial extent of sustained supercells should be fairly
confined, owing to more pronounced MLCIN southward in the
Trans-Pecos and diminishing buoyancy northward in NM.

..Grams/Gleason.. 05/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   33000620 33620623 34170608 34440475 33830393 33060301
            32540281 31930292 31280315 30880398 31370457 31920522
            33000620

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN



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